- advertisement -

1 in 20 die from low blood sugar - JDRF ad - in paper today

Discussion in 'Parents of Children with Type 1' started by selketine, Nov 2, 2011.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. hawkeyegirl

    hawkeyegirl Approved members

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2007
    Messages:
    13,157
    LOL. No, but I just took a shower (I seem to do my best thinking in there!), and I do understand what swellman is saying now.

    He's saying that in this study, 10% of those who died, died from a hypo. He's saying that if you follow them, eventually 100% of them will die, and the percentage of them who die from a hypo will be constant: 10%. Of course that makes the assumption that the 10% rate remains steady across all ages (which we have no evidence that that is true) and it also completely ignores the effect of better treatment and new technology.

    So essentially, if you make a bunch of unsupported assumptions and ignore the reality of better treatment, JDRF's number is completely supportable. :p
     
  2. swellman

    swellman Approved members

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2008
    Messages:
    3,543
    5% at 30 years and 5% at 60 years ... when do they start dying in greater percentages and how does that affect your statistic in your example?
     
  3. hawkeyegirl

    hawkeyegirl Approved members

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2007
    Messages:
    13,157
    Look, my problem with the whole thing is that no one held a gun to JDRF's head and made them come up with a number. It's not like Jeffrey Brewer was testifying before a Senate subcommittee and they browbeat him into coming up with his best estimate.

    They wanted a number to use in a full page NYT ad. They took a bunch of old studies, made some completely unwarranted assumptions and predictions, and stated the number they came up with as a definitive fact. We have people in these two threads believing 1 in 20 as a solid fact. That's just wrong.
     
  4. MHoskins2179

    MHoskins2179 Approved members

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2010
    Messages:
    494
    And yet, even as the discussion rolls on, our community loses another. This time, a 17-year old girl from Australia dies in her sleep Nov. 8. Reportedly, dead in bed. She has become a statistic, in a country where what we're advocating for has been allowed since 2010. My heart cries, again. #whatsthepointofitall
     
  5. swellman

    swellman Approved members

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2008
    Messages:
    3,543
    No, however how weighted is it at 80? Does it overwhelm the other 79 years?

    Traffic accidents are a good comparison: Your age has very little to do with your percentage of dying from a traffic accident and remains relatively constant over the life of an individual up until the age where they can no longer drive but the number of deaths leading up to that age are in sufficient quantity weight the data so that the deaths after driving age do not change the overall percentage.

    As for hypo related death I assert that there's little difference in the chance depending on the age - therefore reasonably constant.
     
  6. hawkeyegirl

    hawkeyegirl Approved members

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2007
    Messages:
    13,157
    I know you assert that. But do you have an evidence to back up your assertion? Evidence good enough for a full page, NYT ad?
     
  7. swellman

    swellman Approved members

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2008
    Messages:
    3,543
    My job here is done. :) Mostly.

    Except I am not saying that the 10% is a reasonable estimate for 50 years out from now because that's silly.

    The question is if the data over the last 30 years is statistically relevant to assume that today's risk is 10%.

    You can continue arguing about whether it's 1% or 2% or 5% or 10% or more. At least now you know where the 10% came from, which, for what's it's worth, isn't the number they used.
     
  8. swellman

    swellman Approved members

    Joined:
    Jul 30, 2008
    Messages:
    3,543
    As I have stated many times, I have issues with the ad mostly due to it's questionable utility. I do not, however, have much of an issue with their choosing 5% from the data they cited. My entire reason for entering this thread was to challenge those who assert the 1 in 20 was baseless and completely made up. I don't need for that number to be wrong in order to dislike the ad.
     
  9. hawkeyegirl

    hawkeyegirl Approved members

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2007
    Messages:
    13,157
    Yay! And I think my job is done now! ;)

    The ad said (paraphrased) that 1 in 20 people like Piper will die from a low. Piper's estimated lifespan is what? 70 or so years? They used it as a projection. Not as a historical statistic.

    Is this where we hold hands and sing "Kum-by-ya" now? :p
     
  10. wilf

    wilf Approved members

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2007
    Messages:
    9,652
    Good sir, I can confirm the following:

    1) The study followed every Type 1 diagnosed at age 15 or less in Norway between 1973 and 1982 - 1906 people in all.

    2) Of these 1906 people, 103 (about 5%) had perished by the end of 2002 (the end of the study period).

    3) The study clearly identified 10 of the 103 (about 10%) as having perished as a result of hypoglycemia.

    4) Dr. Cryer then did a straight-line extrapolation. He assumed that because 10% of the first 5% of the study subjects to perish did so because of hypoglycemias, that 10% of the remaining 95% would also perish due to hypoglycemias.

    5) What Dr. Cryer neglected to consider in making his straight line extrapolation was the possibility that the death rate will vary:
    - due to changes over time in diabetes management techniques and technologies;
    - as the overall age of the study subjects increases.
     
  11. emm142

    emm142 Approved members

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2008
    Messages:
    6,883
    They start dying in greater numbers as they get older - but they die in greater numbers from other factors such as heart disease, stroke, cancer etc. The number dying from a low stays roughly constant, but as a percentage of those who die in total it gets continually lower with age.
     
  12. Christopher

    Christopher Approved members

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2007
    Messages:
    6,771
    I don't know where you pull this stuff out of, but I am pretty sure it is not from actual experience. Have you ever done a clinical trial? Have you ever submitted a NDA for approval? I have and so I speak from actual experience. Your statement that they don't need accurate data is wrong.
     
  13. Ellen

    Ellen Senior Member

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2005
    Messages:
    8,240
    These reported cases seem to be happening all too often - all too often! Heartbreaking, gut wrenching.
     
  14. GRANDY

    GRANDY Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2009
    Messages:
    59
    Tell that to the mother of this child that the statistics are wrong then.
    Dead in bed, that is low blood sugar undetected, correct?

    Enough with the bickering, a child, somebodys child, somebodys grandbaby just died from a hypo, does the percent matter? Is this a game on who wins the argument? Geesh! As morbid as it sounds, I wish someone would post how much have passed due to low blood sugar this year, then you guys could do the math and fight over who is right or wrong.

    I'm with Sooz, one death is to many, I'm with JDRF and Swellman, I believe the data, let's all pray for the kin of this girl. 17 years old! God be with her family and friends.
     
  15. GRANDY

    GRANDY Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2009
    Messages:
    59
    Yes, gut wrenching is putting it mildly. I'm going to give my grandbaby extra kisses (If that's possible)
     
  16. Lee

    Lee Approved members

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2006
    Messages:
    9,633
    Yes - it is gut wrenching and tragic. However it still does not excuse the JDRF for pulling a # out of thin air nor does it give them permission to falsify advertising.

    In general, not in response to the quote, I personally think that pulling in the death of an actual child and saying 'see, see this - this kid died' into a debate about statistics and ethics is pretty low. There are better places to remember and memorialize this child.
     
  17. StillMamamia

    StillMamamia Approved members

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2007
    Messages:
    13,195
    Veering off a bit, but I am curious if any of your kids have been shown this ad and what their reaction was? Thank you.
     
  18. Christopher

    Christopher Approved members

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2007
    Messages:
    6,771
    We all know this happens. Citing this example now, in this thread is really just inappropriate and pointless.

    No, that is not correct. We have no idea what happened in this case. Each case is different.
     
  19. MamaC

    MamaC Approved members

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2006
    Messages:
    5,292
    This.

    MTS
     
  20. hawkeyegirl

    hawkeyegirl Approved members

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2007
    Messages:
    13,157
    If you are not interested in the subject of this thread, why are you continuing to post in it? We're not bickering. We're discussing and debating. And it was good, thoughtful, rational debate until the same people from the other thread stepped in and messed it up again for everyone. I mean, it's nice to hear from someone who hasn't read the studies for themselves and hasn't put a lick of thought into analyzing whether they're correct or not, but we got your point the first time.

    Here is for you and sooz: It is undisputed that one death is too many. There is no argument about that. Are you satisfied? Now, can we get back to the subject of the thread, and if you want to post a memorial to the poor child who died, have some respect and do it in another thread. But using her death to prove your (undisputed) point is disrespectful and inappropriate.

    Finally, there is much dispute about what causes dead in bed. My understanding is that many DIBs are attributed to hypoglycemia, but there is no true consensus as to the cause of DIB.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

- advertisement -

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice